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How to count?

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Wednesday, 9 December 2009, at 5:46 p.m.

In Response To: How to count? (Jason Lee)

There is another very old rule-of-thumb (from at least the 70's) which says, with two checkers remaining, give priority to leaving/putting a checker on the 5-point.

The exception to this rule (and also apparently to Jason's) is that {6,3} bears off better than {5,4}, not on the next roll (where the chances are equal) but on the roll after that.

Of course you CAN count the two cases if you don't have a rule-of-thumb memorized. I don't have any shortcuts there, other than to start with counting Large-X combo's and then look at the remaining doublets (which seem to slip through the cracks sometimes) at the end. E.g. here:

{6,2} gets off with any 6 except 6-1 (that's nine). Also any doublet except 1-1 (and don't forget you already counted 6-6) for another four. Total of thirteen.

{5,3} gets off with any non-doublet combination of {6,5,4,3} except the 4-3 roll, so that 4x3 - 2 = ten. So far we've counted no doublets. 66,55,44,33 all work but not the other two, so add another four. Fourteen total says this is the preferred play.

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