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BGonline.org Forums
vote for play first
Posted By: Chuck Bower In Response To: Test OLM Wed 2009-12-09 (Jason Lee)
Date: Thursday, 10 December 2009, at 2:05 p.m.
IMO, the closeness of the race has some effect here. Blue doesn't want to get hit (particularly on the homeside). Independent (well, it's never quite that) of the race, Blue doesn't want to give White easy outs.
The 6 is between 22/16 and 13/7. (After 22/16 the ace is obvious -- 8/7. Not as obvious is the ace after 13/7.)
If Blue were sure to want to stay in the holding game longterm then 13/7 (getting prepared to clear the mid-) would have stronger pull. It's still an issue here, though. 13/7 provides more builders in-the-zone. White is still vulnerable in Blue's homeboard.
How important is it to stay on the 22-point (or similarly, on the 21-point) compared to how important is it to jump into White's outfield? I don't see strong impetus either way. So...
13/7.
Now for the ace. My first statement (close race) argues against slotting. So it's either 22/21 or 8/7. I'm not sure if the builder is better on the 8-point or 7-point. What about 22-point vs. 21-point? The 22-point blot puts more pressure on White's infield and is less painful after PoH. The 21-point is easier to escape from and puts a bit more pressure on White's outfield (specifically on that 16-point checker that wants to safety. OTOH, if White rolls a six they'll likely be playing 22/16, not 16/10.
Not sure my logic is leading anywhere, but 8/7 looks and feels better. I'll go with that.
Summary: 13/7, 8/7.
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