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BGonline.org Forums
double 3's to play
Posted By: Nack Ballard In Response To: double 3's to play (Adam Versaw)
Date: Thursday, 10 December 2009, at 10:24 p.m.
I would play 7/1 and stay back on the 20pt, because
(1) Better immediate contact. It generates 33 rather than 22 hits in 1296. The 4 or 5 shots you get at 7 numbers (62 51 41 44) is greater than the 11 shots you get at 2 numbers (41).
(2) More subsequent contact (the usual idea when behind). When White gets down to two checkers on the 11pt, she cannot safely break it with 65 64 54, and will leave more shots in other scenarios.
However, what about the other two 3s? In my experience, people have a tendency to oversave a 6 (or save two 6s when one or none should be saved). So while it's probably close, I like 9/3 rather than 5/2(2); i.e., my full play is 9/3 7/1.
Suppose the most likely event follows: opp doesn't make a new outfield point (whether or not she is able to safety the midpoint blot), and now you roll a big number (65 64 63 54 62 53). If you have the checker on the 9pt then okay you'll play it inside rather than break your anchor. But that doesn't prove that you gained by leaving it outside. What should be compared is (a) your equity of 5/2(2) 7/1 followed by (for example) 64 played 9/3 6/2 to (b) the equity of 9/3 7/1 followed by 20/10. In fact, I believe (b) emerges better overall in spite of breaking the anchor because it does not initially waste pips. In other words, saving the 6 makes you a net loser.
By the same token, suppose that 20/17(2) turns out to be right with half the play. I think the other half should be played 9/6 7/4 rather than 7/1 (saving the 6). This decision involves a smaller difference in potential wastage, but the chance of disengaging safely is higher, and if you are forced to run you are less likely hit (than if you're running from the 20pt).
Nack
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