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ELO

Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Wednesday, 16 December 2009, at 7:24 p.m.

In Response To: ELO (Jake Jacobs)

"By now there must be tens of thousands of 5-point matches (or equivalent after starting from further out) between players with a 200-point rating difference: did the stronger player win 61.9%? "

You would want to use only matches between players with enough games for the rating to have had enough time to reach its true value. Even then though there are some problems. One of them is that the ratings drift randomly up and down. Especially near the top of the ratings list the higher the rating the more likely it is to be above the "true rating". This suggests that the underdogs do better than the ELO prediction.

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