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Test OLM Th 12/17/09

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Friday, 18 December 2009, at 3:03 p.m.

In Response To: Test OLM Th 12/17/09 (Jason Lee)

Our race lead is dwindling. Can we wait out White, who has a spare on the 13-point to play with and better spares (than ours) in his homeboard? Not likely.

Note we have cube access which means we may not have to escape the second checker in the event we pay now. (Will White have a take if s/he misses?) Racing-wise I estimate White with 16% racing chances, and hitting-wise somewhere about 14%, so (1/7) + (6/7)*16% ~28%. Appears to be a take, although that won't stop us from doubling.

This seems fairly close to a classic Fram situation: our position is getting worse; although White's isn't getting better (thus not 'classic' position) it isn't getting worse for at least a roll. If we miss I think we can leverage our position -- not technically out-of-harm's-way, though.

Going with my gut:

18/9.

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