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44 to play vs potential backgame

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Sunday, 20 December 2009, at 4:32 a.m.

In Response To: 44 to play vs potential backgame (Adam Versaw)

I prefer making the 5pt here.

Adam: i dont particularly trust a bot on this one

I do only to a point, even though bots have improved in playing complex positions.

After making the 5pt, a position will often be reached where it is right to hit loose on (or slot) the 2pt and not cover, and perhaps repeat the process with one or both of the other 6pt spares, recycling them for timing and reenforcement for the back of the prime.

A bot will sometimes cover the 2pt when it shouldn't, failing to get the most out of the position. As a consequence, plays that make the 2pt now will be relatively overrated in the rollout.

However it comes out, I'm guessing 13/5(2) is in reality about .02 better than reported in the rollout result, though it may not be possible to confirm or deny my opinion in these matters for at least another decade (and only if someone keeps the old rollouts to compare to future ones).

Nack

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