BGonline.org Forums

Pay Now? Later? Do something else?

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Sunday, 20 December 2009, at 2:15 p.m.

In Response To: Pay Now? Later? Do something else? (Keene)

You generally need to be well ahead in the race and/or there is a big difference in awkwardness of candidate plays in order for making a break toward home and volunteering a shot to be right. Neither aspect applies here.

As a result of the race being close, you also have Neil outtimed. There's just no good justification to leave a shot here. 13/8 7/5 looks better distributionally than 13/6, so the former is my choice.

In the first diagram below, I've altered the position by 20 pips (so that you start up 18 instead of down 2). Now it might be right to run (18/13 18/16). For ease of comparison, your actual position is shown in the second diagram.

Nack

Altered by 20 pips	142
Blue (up 5-1 to 11) with 52 to play	124
Position ID: aM94AAzw7gbBAA Match ID: donqABAAIAAA

Original position	126
Blue (up 5-1 to 11) with 52 to play	128
Position ID: rD1jAAywdwfBAA Match ID: donqABAAIAAA

Messages In This Thread

• Pay Now? Later? Do something else?
  Keene -- Sunday, 20 December 2009, at 4:32 a.m.
  • Pay Now? Later? Do something else?
    Stick -- Sunday, 20 December 2009, at 1:11 p.m.
  • Pay Now? Later? Do something else?
    Nack Ballard -- Sunday, 20 December 2009, at 2:15 p.m.
  • Pay Now? Later? Do something else? - ROLLOUT
    Keene -- Tuesday, 22 December 2009, at 7:12 a.m.