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BGonline.org Forums
More prime time
Posted By: Stick In Response To: More prime time (christian munk-christensen)
Date: Sunday, 27 December 2009, at 12:35 a.m.
Not many found the best play according to the Snowie rollout done at the time.
I'm not sure if it still holds true but while in Europe I found many many players, even the top players, still using Snowie and still using it for rollouts of positions like this one, where it's dmp and the Snowie rollout won't play AtS and it's known. I couldn't understand why ...
I think the opponent (White) is the small favorite here. My play is 24/23 5/2.
In a prime v. prime game it's pretty simple to break down the upcoming rolls into groups since your opponent's larger numbers are likely to be their worst rolls and the smaller numbers their best. (assuming a 6 prime for you) Here your opponent's worst numbers are [66 55 44] and the next set of bad numbers for him I'd see as [65 64 54] .
I'd guess the next collection of rolls that your opponent would love to reroll if you gave him the choice would be [61 51 41]. Again, more numbers that don't make the 6 prime allowing you to hop with 6s next turn. The more pips in the roll, the worse is it for your opponent, whether it makes the prime or not. From here things get murkier and your opponent is happy with most rolls but even those that make the prime and contain too many pips can't be seen as good rolls. In this position that includes [33 63]
So that adds up to half the rolls that I don't mind seeing after playing 23, 2. The rest of the rolls for my opponent vary from good to great in my opinion, making the 6 prime and maintaining his timing. Still, with these rolls, it's not like it's lights out gin for your opponent. If he makes the prime you will hope to roll small yourself, cleanly breaking into a solid 5 prime, hoping he cracks or crashes in the near future.
Looking at the other play, 5/4*/1 I'd again attempt to break down the immediate sequence to see where I stand. At first glance I kneejerked into thinking that my opponent's worst rolls would be the dancing rolls, [66 55 65] because these give me the opportunity to roll an immediate six, placing two of his men on the bar, escaping one of my back checkers, keeping the six prime. After deeper consideration it seems the bigger entering numbers would be the worst even though they may put a guy on the bar in the process. [61 51] appear particularly distasteful since it wastes a fair amount of pips and has no checker at the edge of the prime. Now if I am able to fan I may be able to bring this home by watching my opponent play.
Other bad rolls that follow the theme of entering but entering poorly, not being at the edge of the prime, and burning up pips would be [63 53 62 52 44] This still leaves 33 which burns a lot of pips but makes the prime. That's 17 rolls in the 'I wouldn't mind see my opponent rolling these' basket for play B. This is far from conclusive when comparing the plays, but assuming my clock had enough time on it at this point I'd go through all the rolls from both variations to get a firm grip on the position.
After anchoring on the 23pt a couple plies down the line where the immediate sequence doesn't win the game I think it will be better to have both men at the edge of the prime if I crack into a 5 prime and then my opponent cracks back. I don't expect the difference in plays to be that large so if I'm wrong I wouldn't sweat it.
Stick
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