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BGonline.org Forums
Ya gotta finish the job
Posted By: Timothy Chow In Response To: Ya gotta finish the job (Chuck Bower)
Date: Saturday, 2 January 2010, at 3:39 p.m.
Tricky! Even with all the recent discussion about containment, I'm still uncertain here. The chances of completing a closeout here are low, and it's far from the only way to win the game, since Blue is way ahead in the race. Thus I can't believe that slotting with 13/7 is correct.
Blue could play completely safe with 20/13. But this is short-sighted. Whether White dances or enters, Blue must then clear the 13-point, and unless he is lucky he will have to leave some shots anyway. Blue can't expect to disengage without ever leaving any shots. I think Blue should take some risks now to bring one or two checkers into shot range in case White enters.
If White enters, then most likely White will stay in Blue's home board rather than step out into the outfield (unless White can hit by doing so). Something like 20/15 3/1 leaves 2 indirect shots for White and doesn't generate any direct shots for Blue if White enters. I think 20/15 13/11 will be superior even though it leaves 6 indirect shots because it will put a lot more pressure on White if White enters without hitting, and because it will increase Blue's chances of making a new point closer to home.
That leaves 13/8 13/11 to consider. This trains the maximum firepower on the open 6-point, but at the cost of leaving more shots. I think that White will probably hit loose with a 6-1 or a 6-3. Even if White dances, Blue still has the rear straggler to worry about. This seems to me to risk too much for too little gain.
So my play would be: 20/15 13/11.
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