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OLM Su 01/03/10

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Monday, 4 January 2010, at 2:31 p.m.

In Response To: OLM Su 01/03/10 (Jason Lee)

I would have thought all the New Years Eve firecracker duds would have been found before now.

3(2) is a possibility. Other than that the only five I see is 13/8.

Splitting is out for me, as we don't want to be vulnerable on both sides of the board with no homeboard to joust with. Candidates for the 3 are 13/10, 11/8, 8/5, and 7/4.

11/8 seems a bit too conservative as 7/4 leaves about the same number of shots (maybe 1 less, by my quick count) and seems more constructive.

8/5 leaves two direct shots plus an indirect. Too loose for me.

13/10 seems OK, but 7/4 with fewer shots and blots catches my eye better.

So it's between 3(2) and 13/8, 7/4.

I notice that one of the negatives I mentioned for our position and candidate plays is the fact that we have no homeboard. 3(2) at least starts to remedy that weakness. Note that the 18 shots (4 of which are double shots) that we leave often give us good return hits... when owning a better board. We are really only trading the 8-point for the 3-point, which takes some of the equity out of the play. Still, I give preference to the homeboard point.

3(2).

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