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BGonline.org Forums
SNOWIE ROLLOUTS
Posted By: Timothy Chow In Response To: SNOWIE ROLLOUTS (Ray Kershaw)
Date: Tuesday, 5 January 2010, at 11:38 p.m.
If you have a Gammon Village account, Doug Zare has a good article entitled "Rollouts" (22 October 2002) that should answer your questions.
I don't own Snowie, but as I understand it, a "cubeful equity" is obtained by rolling the game out cubeless and applying Janowski's formulas as an adjustment. A "live cube" rollout is a rollout in which Snowie keeps track of the cube and makes cube decisions during the course of the rollout.
One reason you can't always compute the equity from the 6 probabilities even in a live-cube rollout is that those 6 probabilities don't tell you everything. For example, you don't know how many of the single wins were double/drop and how many were double/take/win. The former nets one point while the latter nets two points, but they're both counted as single wins (as are the wins with the cube on even higher values).
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