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SNOWIE ROLLOUTS

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Wednesday, 6 January 2010, at 12:46 p.m.

In Response To: SNOWIE ROLLOUTS (Ray Kershaw)

Re Therefore none of the single wins provided by Snowie to the user can be double/drop or double/take/win.

If you're doing a cubeFUL rollout, unless (unlike Gnubg) Snowie does a cubeful and a cubeless rollout in tandem while running a cubeful rollout, then yes, some part of the single wins/losses can occur after double/take, or be estimated to occur after double/drop.

In a cubeFUL rollout, the bot of course may double at some point. And if it does it may take or drop. If it takes, the rollout continues, and the bot may redouble, again with a take or drop ... and so on. If a trial ends with the last checker taken off (perhaps after any number of doubles and takes) that's a "cubeless" result, ignoring the cube value. If a trial ends with double/pass, at that point the bot ends the trial and estimates the probable distribution of outcomes (S/G/BG) if the trial were to continue; that estimate also enters into the "cubeless" result.

Timothy's correct to point out that knowing the "cubeless" game results don't tell us what level the cube was on in the various trials. But his comment may, I think, be a bit confusing, because (1) we have no reason to expect that adding up the "cubeless" outcomes should equal the cubeful equity, regardless of cube value, and (2) adding them up does equal the "cubeless" equity, since changing the cube level doesn't change the cubeless equity.

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