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BGonline.org Forums
Tokyo Permabox #7 - Cube
Posted By: Timothy Chow In Response To: Tokyo Permabox #7 - Cube (neilkaz)
Date: Thursday, 7 January 2010, at 1:10 a.m.
I agree that the gapped ace-point is an issue.
But I don't think that the big-dog/big-favorite thing is such a serious issue. What I think is important is that by studying the Trice position, we get a sense for what the chances are that the remaining checker will escape. Gapped ace-point aside, the number of checkers off doesn't really have much effect on that probability. Once you have a sense of that probability, then you can combine that with your knowledge of how many checkers are off to estimate the actual winning chances.
The reason I'm harping on this point is that I think the line of reasoning is useful in general, for squeezing the most possible benefit out of a reference position. Of course if you have thousands of reference positions memorized for every case then there's no need to squeeze information out of a reference position that might not be quite right. But for those of us with limited memories, I think it's important to learn to make the best use of what we already know. In my opinion, the Trice position is amazingly close to the Permabox position, because the attacker's front position is almost exactly the same, and that is the strongest factor controlling the escape probability.
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