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BGonline.org Forums
Money 43
Posted By: Nack Ballard In Response To: Money 43 (Stick)
Date: Sunday, 24 January 2010, at 4:32 p.m.
I call this type of position "BCD" (blot counterprime defense). Opp cannot make the usual loose hit at the front of the six-prime without risk.
If Yellow chooses not to hit, then 9/6 8/4 looks best. Something like 9/6 7/3 retains the option of (awkwardly) deepening the builders by not hitting on the 1pt next turn with 64 63 61, but that's tiny (if it's worth anything at all), so I'll go with the stronger distribution.
If Yellow hits and closes out, there is no question that she wins more gammons because Brown still has five checker outside, whereas if she delays the hit Brown will have only four or three (or occasionally fewer) outside. (Also, she will win some gammons if she is hit back through picking up a second checker, though as a counterfactor if she hits loose next turn those gammon chances increase some because Brown may either be slotted and he doesn't hit and cover or he doesn't slot for that reason and his distribution is less robust.)
There is also no question in my mind that Yellow will win more often by not hitting, so not hitting is clearly correct at a score where winning a gammon doesn't pay double.
For money, the timing of this decision looks very close to me, so I'm going to let Brown's extra gammons (if Yellow hits), such as they are, break the tie. That is, I'm going with 9/6 8/4.
If Yellow had a few (maybe even just a couple) extra pips of timing, I would hit. That's how close I'm guessing the decision is in the actual position.
Nack
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