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My take, and the quote from the book

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 2:07 a.m.

In Response To: OT: poker hypothetical (Chuck Bower)

My view was exactly like Steve's. Assume opp has one of {AA,AK,KA,KK}. First find the probabilities assuming the hand gets dealt to the end. Rainbow the four cards. Poker Academy Pro sez QQ beats AK 57.0%, AA 19.0%, KK 18.6%. KK beats AK 69.6%, AA 18.6%, KK 50% (we all new this one).

Then calculate the relative frequencies for opp holding his three hands under the two conditions: you hold QQ; you hold KK. Multiply out the numbers and you find that KK does better.

Steve did a nice job pointing out some of the subtleties of future bets based upon the community cards that can come up.

Here is the quote from Harrington on Cash Games, volume II, from appendix interview with poker legend Bobby Hoff (aka "The Wizard"):

(Harrington/Robertie): Do you ever fold Kings preflop?
(Hoff): Well, I can tell you what Sailor Roberts said. If your opponent raises, and you reraise, and your opponent puts in the third raise, and you have two kings, you're a huge underdog to most everyone. You'd probably rather have two queens against a lot of players than have two kings.... If that third raise is either aces, kings, or ace-king, your two queens might be the best hand. But if you've got two kings, and they're only reraising with those three hands, you're obviously close to a 4-1 underdog, whatever it works out to be.

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