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Four critical calls from the Super Bowl

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Tuesday, 9 February 2010, at 12:23 a.m.

In Response To: Four critical calls from the Super Bowl (Bob Koca)

I don't understand your first point, but...

The breakeven success rate on the field goal is 58.6%. (Pass wins 57.8%. Successful FG wins 65.7%. Missed FG wins 46.6%.)

The method I used earlier probably gave too much credit to INDy's decision. It is based upon a smooth FG curve (as a function of yardage) for NFL average kickers which is normalized by both long and short FG success. Stover is above average in accuracy for shorter kicks but below average for longer ones. This method does not account for such a skewed individual distribution.

Messages In This Thread

• OT: Obligatory Zeus question
  happyjuggler0 -- Monday, 8 February 2010, at 3:25 a.m.
  • OT: Obligatory Zeus question
    KenB -- Monday, 8 February 2010, at 3:49 a.m.
    • OT: Obligatory Zeus question
      neilkaz -- Monday, 8 February 2010, at 4:15 a.m.
      • OT: Obligatory Zeus question
        rory -- Monday, 8 February 2010, at 6:17 a.m.
        • OT: Obligatory Zeus question
          lenny -- Monday, 8 February 2010, at 7:23 a.m.
      • OT: Obligatory Zeus question
        Steve Mellen -- Monday, 8 February 2010, at 3:56 p.m.
    • OT: Obligatory Zeus question
      Sam Pottle -- Monday, 8 February 2010, at 6:32 a.m.
  • Four critical calls from the Super Bowl
    Chuck Bower -- Monday, 8 February 2010, at 12:27 p.m.
    • Four critical calls from the Super Bowl
      Sam Pottle -- Monday, 8 February 2010, at 1:02 p.m.
      • Four critical calls from the Super Bowl
        Chuck Bower -- Monday, 8 February 2010, at 2:04 p.m.
      • Four critical calls from the Super Bowl
        Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 9 February 2010, at 12:27 a.m.
    • Four critical calls from the Super Bowl
      Bob Koca -- Monday, 8 February 2010, at 6:00 p.m.
      • Four critical calls from the Super Bowl
        Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 9 February 2010, at 12:23 a.m.
    • Four critical calls from the Super Bowl
      Joe Russell -- Wednesday, 10 February 2010, at 1:51 p.m.
      • Four critical calls from the Super Bowl
        neilkaz -- Wednesday, 10 February 2010, at 3:56 p.m.
      • Four critical calls from the Super Bowl
        Gregg Cattanach -- Wednesday, 10 February 2010, at 6:39 p.m.
  • OT: Obligatory Zeus question
    Barry Silliman -- Monday, 8 February 2010, at 1:28 p.m.
    • OT: Obligatory Zeus question
      Chuck Bower -- Monday, 8 February 2010, at 2:12 p.m.
      • OT: Obligatory Zeus question
        Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 8 February 2010, at 2:18 p.m.
        • OT: Obligatory Zeus question
          Sam Pottle -- Monday, 8 February 2010, at 3:12 p.m.
          • OT: Obligatory Zeus question
            Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 8 February 2010, at 3:33 p.m.
            • OT: Obligatory Zeus question
              Sam Pottle -- Monday, 8 February 2010, at 4:00 p.m.
    • OT: Obligatory Zeus question
      Bob Koca -- Monday, 8 February 2010, at 5:55 p.m.
      • OT: Obligatory Zeus question
        Gregg Cattanach -- Monday, 8 February 2010, at 7:08 p.m.
        • OT: Obligatory Zeus question
          Bob Koca -- Monday, 8 February 2010, at 8:45 p.m.
      • OT: Obligatory Zeus question
        Barry Silliman -- Monday, 8 February 2010, at 11:22 p.m.
        • OT: Obligatory Zeus question
          Stick -- Monday, 8 February 2010, at 11:29 p.m.
          • OT: Obligatory Zeus question
            Steve Mellen -- Tuesday, 9 February 2010, at 12:58 a.m.
            • OT: Obligatory Zeus question
              Gregg Cattanach -- Wednesday, 10 February 2010, at 1:47 p.m.
              • OT: Obligatory Zeus question
                Stick -- Wednesday, 10 February 2010, at 4:28 p.m.
                • OT: Obligatory Zeus question
                  Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 10 February 2010, at 6:09 p.m.
        • OT: Obligatory Zeus question
          Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 9 February 2010, at 1:28 a.m.
          • OT: Obligatory Zeus question
            Barry Silliman -- Wednesday, 10 February 2010, at 1:34 a.m.
    • OT: Obligatory Zeus question
      Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 9 February 2010, at 12:39 a.m.