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42P-43: more data

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Sunday, 14 February 2010, at 5:23 p.m.

In Response To: 42P-43: more data (Nack Ballard)

I have to agree with Daniel (and disagree with you).

The confidence intervals you mention from the rollouts are for cubeless $-play. Snowie does not (nor ever has) reported confidence for the cube-adjusted (what it likes to -- IMO misleadingly -- call "cubeful") Janowski influenced numbers it posts as its default. (I.e. the equity on the first line of the report of a candidate is what I call "default".)

I've bitched about this shortcoming (failure of SW to report uncertainties for cube-adjusted RO's) forever. GNU-bg does things much better, as does XG.

One way of thinking about this is to notice than when a position is close to a cube the difference in equity is much larger for cubeful (any way you slice it -- cube adjusted or live-cube) than it is for cubeless. That's because near a cube the value of the game is twice as much. If you multiply a mean by a factor of two you have to also multiply the standard deviation by a factor of two.

Messages In This Thread

• 42P-43 update
  neilkaz -- Friday, 12 February 2010, at 7:34 p.m.
  • 42P-43 At Match Scores
    Paul Weaver -- Friday, 12 February 2010, at 10:31 p.m.
    • 42P-43 At Match Scores
      Stick -- Saturday, 13 February 2010, at 6:32 a.m.
      • Weaker vs. Stronger ~ GS vs. GG?
        jdg -- Saturday, 13 February 2010, at 2:17 p.m.
        • Weaker vs. Stronger ~ GS vs. GG?
          Stick -- Saturday, 13 February 2010, at 3:53 p.m.
        • Weaker vs. Stronger ~ GS vs. GG?
          Rich Munitz -- Saturday, 13 February 2010, at 7:20 p.m.
          • Weaker vs. Stronger ~ GS vs. GG?
            jdg -- Sunday, 14 February 2010, at 1:54 p.m.
    • Are we sure weaker vs stronger matters here?
      neilkaz -- Saturday, 13 February 2010, at 4:36 p.m.
      • Are we sure weaker vs stronger matters here?
        Stick -- Saturday, 13 February 2010, at 4:46 p.m.
        • Are we sure weaker vs stronger matters here?
          David Rockwell -- Saturday, 13 February 2010, at 5:36 p.m.
  • 42P-43: more data
    Nack Ballard -- Saturday, 13 February 2010, at 3:07 a.m.
    • 42P-43: more data
      Daniel Murphy -- Saturday, 13 February 2010, at 6:04 p.m.
      • 42P-43: more data
        Nack Ballard -- Sunday, 14 February 2010, at 2:13 a.m.
        • 42P-43: more data
          Chuck Bower -- Sunday, 14 February 2010, at 5:23 p.m.
          • 42P-43: more data
            Nack Ballard -- Sunday, 14 February 2010, at 7:46 p.m.
            • 42P-43: more data
              Chuck Bower -- Monday, 15 February 2010, at 8:47 p.m.
              • 42P-43: more data
                Nack Ballard -- Monday, 15 February 2010, at 11:51 p.m.
        • 42P-43: more data
          Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 14 February 2010, at 5:49 p.m.