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A Double One To Play

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Thursday, 18 February 2010, at 5:44 p.m.

In Response To: A Double One To Play (Neil Robins)

Let's start with a very simple model and see how things stack up:

1) if you hit loose, opp return hits 10/36. Assume all return hits are losses and all return misses are wins. That makes you about 72.5% to win if you hit.

2) if you don't hit, let's assume you play 13/11(2). [Maybe 13/12(2), 8/6 is better -- probably pretty close.] Now assume opp runs off your 9-point and further assume that opp will try and make this a (pure) race. The pipcount doesn't quite paint the whole picture as your four point block will lead to inefficiencies in opp's running gameplan.

Ask yourself "if this were a pure race, what would the pipcount need to be in order for me to have 72.5% GWC?" Opp is on roll leading 100-105. Your 105 is moderately efficient so at your next turn, opp would have to have an effective pipcount of ~113 then or ~121 now (assuming he gets an average roll of 8 pips this turn).

Is your opp's wastage worth 21 pips? Doesn't look close to me.

Finally, ask how good/bad the assumptions are. Misses aren't all wins; hits aren't all losses. Do the miss-loss games cancel the hit-win games? Not likely, but I wouldn't expect it to be way off. (Very) secondarily, gammon wins aren't likely in any case, but there should be more after the hit.

13/9*.

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