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Chicago Update #2: John O'Hagan

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Monday, 8 March 2010, at 9:56 p.m.

In Response To: Chicago Update #2: John O'Hagan (Bob Glass)

Readers of this board know that my gammon win/loss and single game win/loss estimates are not always close. Keep reading this board Bob and you'll see what I mean. I thought this position was pretty easy to estimate since the oppt had decent closeout chances which meant his g chances were well above the 13% you get from the starting position (don't remember the position exactly other than it was an early blitz postion where the oppt had his 6,5, and 2 pts made). Mine were clearly worse than the starting pos but oppt still had two men on the 24 so g wins were a longshot but far from impossible. I estimated 35%/6% g's lost/won and Rory said the XG RO was showing 34%/7.5%. Plugging my estimates into the takepoint equation and adjusting for g's and recube vig gives a cubeless takepoint of around 27-28% (the XG RO gave my side ~ 32% IIRC). I was sure I could win > 27% and there was the vig that his position might not be very easy to play.

Another way to analyze the cube actions ATS is to ask what the trailer's takepoint is if he just mindlessly takes and always redoubles on his next shake. Drop makes it 9-13 with about 20% MWC, take and lose loses the match with 0% MWC, take and win makes the score 13-12 with about 60% MWC, take and win a gammon wins the match with 100% MWC. So the takepoint becomes 1/3 less 2/3 of my gammon chances. I guesstimated the latter at 6% so the takepoint becomes 29.67%.

The auto recube strategy is wrong of course and my experience has been that you can usually take with 2-3% less cubeless winning chances than the auto recube takepoint.

So you get approx the same takepoint using either method.

Messages In This Thread

• Chicago Update #2
  Paul Weaver -- Sunday, 7 March 2010, at 8:53 a.m.
  • Chicago Update #2
    Ken Larsen -- Sunday, 7 March 2010, at 11:43 a.m.
    • Chicago Update #2
      joe freedman -- Sunday, 7 March 2010, at 12:51 p.m.
      • Chicago Update #2
        Ken Larsen -- Sunday, 7 March 2010, at 1:24 p.m.
        • Chicago Update #2
          Chuck Bower -- Sunday, 7 March 2010, at 2:49 p.m.
          • Chicago Update #2
            garyo -- Sunday, 7 March 2010, at 6:21 p.m.
    • Chicago Update #2
      Joe Russell -- Sunday, 7 March 2010, at 1:26 p.m.
      • Chicago Update #2
        neilkaz -- Sunday, 7 March 2010, at 3:31 p.m.
    • Thanks, Ken Larsen
      Paul Weaver -- Sunday, 7 March 2010, at 3:31 p.m.
      • Thanks, Ken Larsen
        rory -- Monday, 8 March 2010, at 7:58 a.m.
        • I agree, POY Nomination *NM*
          David -- Monday, 8 March 2010, at 3:59 p.m.
    • Chicago Update #2
      Bob Koca -- Sunday, 7 March 2010, at 5:10 p.m.
    • Chicago Update #2: John O'Hagan
      Bob Glass -- Monday, 8 March 2010, at 9:11 p.m.
      • Chicago Update #2: John O'Hagan
        John O'Hagan -- Monday, 8 March 2010, at 9:56 p.m.
        • Chicago Update #2: John O'Hagan
          David Rockwell -- Monday, 8 March 2010, at 10:31 p.m.
          • Chicago Update #2: John O'Hagan
            Timothy Chow -- Monday, 8 March 2010, at 11:03 p.m.
            • Chicago Update #2: John O'Hagan
              John O'Hagan -- Monday, 8 March 2010, at 11:54 p.m.
              • Chicago Update #2: John O'Hagan
                Stick -- Tuesday, 9 March 2010, at 12:30 a.m.
  • Chicago Update #2
    Chase -- Sunday, 7 March 2010, at 12:44 p.m.
  • Chicago Update #2
    Stick -- Sunday, 7 March 2010, at 5:01 p.m.
    • Chicago Update #2
      jdg -- Sunday, 7 March 2010, at 5:08 p.m.
      • Chicago Update #2
        Stick -- Sunday, 7 March 2010, at 5:14 p.m.
      • Chicago Update #2
        garyo -- Sunday, 7 March 2010, at 6:16 p.m.
  • Chicago Update #2
    Jason Lee -- Sunday, 7 March 2010, at 7:42 p.m.
  • Chicago Update #2
    Jason Lee -- Sunday, 7 March 2010, at 7:43 p.m.
  • Chicago Update #2
    Chiva Tafazzoli -- Sunday, 7 March 2010, at 8:56 p.m.
    • Chicago Update #2
      Sam Pottle -- Monday, 8 March 2010, at 1:08 a.m.
  • Chicago Update #2 (late night..early morning)
    neilkaz -- Monday, 8 March 2010, at 1:51 a.m.