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Calculating When To Double Or Lose Your Market

Posted By: David Rockwell
Date: Thursday, 25 March 2010, at 9:23 p.m.

In Response To: Calculating When To Double Or Lose Your Market (trichard)

I don't know of anyone who actually tries to do a calculation in their head. Ignoring all complications such as becoming too good to double, the general math is:

Sum of A - Sum of B

where A = equity lost when you fail to double and you lose your market by the next roll

B = equity lost when you double and the position isn't good enough to double by the next roll.

If the first term is larger than the second, double. If not, don't double. Note that the formula encompasses both the frequency and severity of equity loss.

Note that all sequences that lead you to a position which is double / take next turn need not be considered. With those, it doesn't matter if you double now or not since you arrive in the same position by next turn anyway.

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