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Rollouts of Robertie's 501 problems: Pos 129 Snowie Eval

Posted By: Chase
Date: Friday, 26 March 2010, at 4:16 p.m.

In Response To: Rollouts of Robertie's 501 problems: Pos 129 Snowie Eval (Timothy Chow)

I don't begin to understand all this stuff, but in studying the various rollouts of opening moves I've noticed that the XG rollouts tend to report a higher percentage of backgammons. (This is just an observation; I haven't confirmed that this is true throughout the entire sample.) With backgammons being rather rare events, this had me wondering if an occasional backgammon on a high cube would be enough to skew the results on, say, an opening 64, where the equities are very close to begin with. If I'm understanding, it sounds like the same effect that you are describing for variance due to high cube values could be happening with backgammons. Or am I way off base?

It also seems to me that the bots are much better at playing for the gammon (and knowing when to play for the gammon) than humans and that, again looking at opening moves with very tight equities, maybe the "best" move, as reported by a bot, isn't necessarily the best move for a human to play.

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