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Settlement limits

Posted By: Tom Keith
Date: Sunday, 28 March 2010, at 1:42 p.m.

In Response To: Rollouts of Robertie's 501 problems: Pos 129 Snowie Eval (myshlev)

I'm surprised the settlement limit feature is not used more often. It has a couple advantages that I can see:

1. Using settlement limits is faster. Two reasons: (a) Some trials are truncated, so less work. (b) The lower variance means you don't need as many trials.

2. A rollout with a settlement limit might be more accurate than an unlimited rollout. This might seem counterintuitive since we are used to thinking that you need to do full rollouts when evaluating cube decisions. But we are only truncating a few trials (maybe 5%?) and the trials we are truncating are wild games where the cube is being whipped back and forth. There is a good chance that the computer has misplayed the cube at least once along the way, and by allowing the cube to get very high we are magnifying that error. Even if the computer plays the cube perfectly, it is not good if a few wild games dominate the scoring.

Tom

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