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bearoff cubes (and fish factor?)

Posted By: Jim Stutz
Date: Tuesday, 30 March 2010, at 4:52 a.m.

In Response To: bearoff cubes (and fish factor?) (joe freedman)

As an inexperienced tournament player I'm a big fan of these fish-factor problems, for obvious reasons. But I've gotten the impression that the theme is considered trivial by experienced players. Is this the case? If so I can't see why -- cube handling between unequal players comes up all the time in ABT open fields, bots can't be used to settle disputes, and the chunks of equity at issue are often huge. Seems like the subject should be suitable grist for argument. I have found some generic technical analysis in the archives on big-cube/late-bearoff positions, but the experts generally ignore what is often, IMHO, the most important factor: What is the relative strength of the players? (For example, this recent John O'Hagan post: http://www.bgonline.org/forums/webbbs_config.pl?noframes;read=60654 If one player in the posted position had a 150 ELO advantage over the other -- an advantage that John O'Hagan himself would not infrequently enjoy in a typical ABT match - then the fish factor would dwarf any other considerations in the OTB cube decision.)

Back to Joe Freedman's problem, position 1:

Match to 7, Blue leads 2-0
Blue on roll. Cube action?

2000-rated White	17
1850-rated Blue	17
GNUBg Id: UgEAQCoAAAAAAA:UQngAAAAEAAA XGID=--A-AAA------------aaa-a--:1:1:1:00:2:0:0:7:8

A clear RD/T for 1850-rated Blue against 2000-rated White.

Obviuosly 2000 Blue is an a priori favorite in every game, and apparently (I read this somewhere in the archives, I think) is better than a 3/2 favorite at 0-0 in a 7-point match. Accordingly, IMHO (and my humility is justified, make no mistake), the position below would be a clear RD/T as well:

Match to 7, Blue leads 2-0
Blue on roll. Cube action?

2000-rated White	17
1850-rated Blue	18
GNUBg Id: UgEAgCoAAAAAAA:UQngAAAAEAAA XGID=---AAAA------------aaa-a--:1:1:1:00:2:0:0:7:8

...and, I would argue, the one below is also a RD/T:

Match to 7, Blue leads 2-0
Blue on roll. Cube action?

2000-rated White	17
1850-rated Blue	19
GNUBg Id: UgEAACsAAAAAAA:UQngAAAAEAAA XGID=----BAA------------aaa-a--:1:1:1:00:2:0:0:7:8

Position 2:

Match to 7, Blue leads 2-0
Blue on roll. Cube action?

2000-rated White	17
1850-rated Blue	5
GNUBg Id: UgEAoAEAAAAAAA:QgngAAAAEAAA XGID=-AB----------------aaa-a--:2:-1:1:00:2:0:0:7:8

Not even close to a redouble for 2000-rated White against 1850-rated Blue.

Below, still not a redouble for White:

Match to 7, Blue leads 2-0
Blue on roll. Cube action?

2000-rated White	13
1850-rated Blue	5
GNUBg Id: agAAoAEAAAAAAA:QgngAAAAEAAA XGID=-AB------------------baa--:2:-1:1:00:2:0:0:7:8

Only when she's this good or better (below) does 2000 White have a redouble ATS against 1850 Blue:

Match to 7, Blue leads 2-0
Blue on roll. Cube action?

2000-rated White	12
1850-rated Blue	5
GNUBg Id: WgAAoAEAAAAAAA:QgngAAAAEAAA XGID=-AB------------------aba--:2:-1:1:00:2:0:0:7:8

So how do experienced players deal with these positions OTB against weak opponents? Do I have it wrong?

Messages In This Thread

• bearoff cubes (and fish factor?)
  joe freedman -- Monday, 29 March 2010, at 9:23 a.m.
  • bearoff cubes (and fish factor?) --analysis
    joe freedman -- Monday, 29 March 2010, at 9:35 a.m.
    • bearoff cubes (and fish factor?) --analysis
      Chuck Bower -- Monday, 29 March 2010, at 5:04 p.m.
      • bearoff cubes (and fish factor?) --analysis
        joe freedman -- Monday, 29 March 2010, at 6:43 p.m.
  • bearoff cubes (and fish factor?)
    Jim Stutz -- Tuesday, 30 March 2010, at 4:52 a.m.
    • bearoff cubes (and fish factor?)
      joe freedman -- Tuesday, 30 March 2010, at 11:12 a.m.