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Play preference/ Rollout ?

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Tuesday, 30 March 2010, at 10:08 p.m.

In Response To: Play preference/ Rollout ? (Seth)

(1) The thought with 6/4(2) is that it uses the 6 point stack to make an excellent priming point, and that Blue has time and many combinations to improve the prime -- 1s, 3s and 5s for the 5 point, 1s, 3s and 6s for the 6 point, 6-4 for the 2 point -- and a better chance of containing White if White tries to runs off the anchor, while giving White only 6s and 4s to run with, and swinging numbers including 3-3, 3-2 and 3-5 Blue's way. It's a far-sighted play, that sees that unless White rolls well, he'll soon have to give up his 8 point.

Not fully appreciating after 6/4(2) how few turns White has to hold his front position unless he rolls well -- which means that Blue can win after 6/4(2) whether or not he fills in his prime right away -- I'd have rather grabbed the advanced anchor, but that surely does leave Blue with an anemic front position.

(2) How meaningful is your rollout? Well, realize that it's not telling you that the two plays differ by only 0.011. It's telling you the cubeful equities for the two plays are likely to be:

Play Equity
bar/23(2) 6/4(2)somewhere between 0.158 and 0.244
bar/21(2) somewhere between 0.159 and 0.221

Me, I'd use 2-ply checker play, quadruple the number of trials (coincidentally making 1296), and see what the result of that is.

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