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Kazaross/Rockwell MET Formulas

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Wednesday, 31 March 2010, at 2:29 a.m.

In Response To: Kazaross/Rockwell MET Formulas (Bob Glass)

Here's a Neil's number system which is pretty close to the K/R MWC table. Doesn't apply when the leader is 2a, crawford, or post-crawford.

Trailer needs 15 Neil's number is 4

14 4

13 4.5

12 4.5

11 5

10 5

9 5.5

8 6

7 6.5

6 7

5 7.5

4 7.5

Leader's/Trailer's MWC = 50% +/- D*Neil's number. (Where D = the difference in scores).

Ex. 6a-8a. 50% +/- 2*6% = 62%/38%. (Actual numbers are 61.6561%/38.3439%).

When the leader has a big lead, the above tends to overestimate his edge. Therefore, when the trailer is 15a, rather than D*4 for all twelve scores, use nine 4s and three 3s. Ex. 15a-3a is 50% +/- (9*4 + 3*3) = 95%/5%. Actual numbers are 95.4931%/4.5069%. Also, when the leader is 13a, use eight 4.5s and two 3s rather than 4.5s for all ten scores.

One other minor problem with this system is that it tends to overestimate the leader's MWC at most scores by some small amount (usually < 1% but sometimes a little more). So if you have a lead vs. a slightly weaker player, the MWC you get using this system is probably about right. OTOH, if you're up a against an equal or better player, make an appropriate adjustment to the MWC you get from this system.

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