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Are Byes Fair? Is Life Fair?

Posted By: joe freedman
Date: Saturday, 3 April 2010, at 4:52 p.m.

In Response To: Are Byes Fair? Is Life Fair? (Bob Glass)

Let's say I enter a shark-infested jackpot of 8, where my chance of winning a particular match is 40%. If I enter the first round, my chance of winning the jackpot is .4 x .4 .4 = .064, as opposed to .125 if I were even money on each match.

But if I enter the final round, my chance is .40 instead of .50. Obviously a better deal for me.

Now, it's true is there's a superstar in the field, against whom I'm only 30%, I would prefer that he be knocked out by someone else. But even if he buys his way into the finals, I'm getting .30 instead of .50. If he entered the round of 8, my chances of winning would be even lower than .064 if I play him. So I'd definitely prefer that any player better than I (assuming there are any) buy in later rounds. Of course, if by doing so he squeezes out weaker players, that's a different story.

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