[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

Trice Racing Question

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Monday, 12 April 2010, at 3:34 p.m.

In Response To: Trice Racing Question (Bill Calton)

I use a simple method in mimimal wastage pure pip count oriented races..it is called pip counting.

Here Black is ahead 65-70, a 5 pip lead. White would have a definate take if he were behind 8 pips at this pip count. Black is likely w/in 3 to 4 pips of White's point of last take so he has a definate initial double.

Pure pip count oriented races are easy and this is most certainly close enough to one. Yeah, Black would prefer to have a couple more checkers on his 4 pt, but he does have two more borne off.

People like to cloud what should be simple judgement by using formulas when they aren't needed or don't really apply.

Here's an even lower wastage position for reference.




is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 70
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 65
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=---ACDE------------eeca---:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 71.66% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 28.34% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 71.61% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 28.39% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.433
Double:+0.864
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.670 (-0.019)
Double/Take:+0.689
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.311)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
4112 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: Random
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.002 (+0.668...+0.672)
Confidence Double: ± 0.002 (+0.687...+0.691)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 2 minutes 51 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.13

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.