The secret is to not allow the person posting the problems to influence you with their lying Subject lines.
I was joking of course as I knew Chase had no intention of influencing anyone with this position but in the past others have also posted something where the subject line was misleading about the position at hand, usually not on purpose. Now the question for most of you is probably "where was he misleading us, I see a potential 234 backgame!?"
If you see the problem this way then I don't think you're seeing how the position will develop. I asked two great players and one of them agreed with me, without any prodding, and the other preferred the double hit. I still have not looked what a bot thinks is correct because I didn't want to influence my reasoning that I promised myself I'd write. I will tell you the person who agreed with my play, not hitting and making the 22pt anchor, was Falafel. He is someone I would want agreeing with me on this type of play.
To get to the point you should see this position after making the anchor not as a 234 backgame yet a 23 backgame with the bonus of temporary annoying your opponent by not allowing him to make the 4pt. As with the thoughts of any backgame you have to make sure you have the timing to play it and being down 84 pips after the roll and all of your opponent's checkers escaped smells of perfect timing to me. If you make the third anchor your game plan is to play an excellent 2-3 backgame. For now you will retain your opponent's 4 point also but it will likely be sacrificed when need be in order to maintain your timing.
Normally you wouldn't want to allow your opponent to make another point, esp. the bar point completing a solid 4 prime in front of your backgame. Normally this hurts your timing as your men will tend to be more hemmed in and he can extend his prime from the back. This isn't normally. Him making the point will actually be a hindrance down the road since your timing is excellent and it will be a point he will have to clear against your 2-3 backgame. He also doesn't have the timing to prime you in. Even if he makes another point in the prime he would soon have to sacrifice it to get home. You have 3 men at the edge of what will likely be his 4 prime ready to escape.
I advocate trying to go forward in most backgame situations. A backgame is usually a last resort and not the best resort when gammons count against you. If you can hit two and try to win going forward, as the rule, I'd say hit two and try to win going forward. This is an exception to the rule. Leave that blot already sucked to his ace point alone. Your army is far removed from winning at this point in time by going forward. Let him come to you, push checkers around the board, make your 5pt, make your 3pt, the time to strike will eventually come.
When I see this position my X ply SM function sees into the future and sees something more like this:
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| XGID=---ABBBA-----A---cbedBBBa-:0:0:1:00:0:0:2:0:10 | ||||||||||||||||
 on roll, cube action? | ||||||||||||||||
is Player 2
In reality it could be a little worse, it could be a little better, but you get the idea. Imagine this from the original position, you decide to hit two, your opponent cubes, what do you do? You sigh reflecting on what a donkey your opponent is, but you only take because your position is still weak. Now, picture yourself having made the 22pt anchor and your opponent cubes ... how fast do you beaver now?
Having studied dmp so much lately the first question I find myself asking is "which play wins more?" Here I think that's a no brainer, making the anchor for me. As to which play wins more gammons I'd assume it'd be hitting two but wouldn't swear to it. Which play loses more gammons? Again, I'm not sure so my strong feeling that making the anchor wins that much more makes my play clear.
Stick