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Help understanding play

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Monday, 19 April 2010, at 12:35 a.m.

In Response To: Help understanding play (MikeL)

Since 4's are forced, let's look at the 3's. From the rear forward:

21/18 -- leaves a ton of shots (30/36). Great if not hit and some life after being hit (even occasional return shots plus just entering might be a survivor).

11/8 -- best for maintaining builders and it gives up a point six away from a made point (the 5-point) so that loss isn't much. But it does leave another blot.

8/5 and 5/2 are similar in that they take Vanna's limited flexibility to a worse level.

Now an important consideration for all but 21/18 -- the checker left on the 21-point is still quite vulnerable, getting pointed on 7/36 and getting hit (loosely) on everything else except 5-3 and 5-5 (this last being a pretty good roll for Vanna anyway).

It's not easy to step into a triple shot, and it may not be right here, but given the double downside of staying on the vulnerable 21-point and either worsening the already fragile flexibility or opening another blot, I think I'll take my chances with

25/21/18.

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