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BGonline.org Forums
When Is it a Cube? A Fight for 6's
Posted By: Timothy Chow In Response To: When Is it a Cube? A Fight for 6's (Seth)
Date: Tuesday, 20 April 2010, at 10:43 p.m.
Trice's Backgammon Boot Camp has useful tips about these sorts of positions. One thing to keep in mind is that in the imaginary game of "first 6 wins" (you and your opponent take turns rolling until one of you rolls a 6, and that person is the winner), the person on roll has about 59% winning chances.
This position is a bit like a first-6-wins position, except that rolling a 6 doesn't guarantee the win. Furthermore there is definitely gammon danger, especially if your opponent rolls a 6 first. Therefore for money I think this is far from a double.
Another useful reference position is that if all of your checkers (except the one on the bar) are already in your home board, then for money, your opponent can typically still take even when he's down to a four-point board as long as you're still on the bar. Most people who haven't studied these positions would drop such a position like a hot potato. It illustrates that, in your position, you're in much less danger of losing your market than you might think.
Now in practice, because these positions are so often misunderstood, you could consider doubling before it's theoretically correct to do so, if you're pretty sure your opponent will drop. But you should be careful about doing so. By waiting until your double is theoretically correct, you will still probably be able to gain equity from an incorrect drop, and you don't have to worry about losing equity if your opponent correctly takes.
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