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Which play is better based upon rollouts

Posted By: David Rockwell
Date: Tuesday, 27 April 2010, at 2:19 a.m.

In Response To: Which play is better based upon rollouts (Stick)

The subject seems to be whether or not opening rollouts can be distorted by systematic errors from particular types of games, such as backgames, many moves down the line. There are a number of problems with this thinking. The biggest problem with it is that EITHER side can end up playing a backgammon or something not handled well within the rollouts. Because of this, errors in the middle game and end game will tend to be offsetting and too small to hit the threshold of human interest. Errors in play that have a significant effect on opening rollouts will almost always happen in the first few moves.

There may be a small number of exceptions to this logic for second move choices such as 41$-44. But, there aren't many. As you go deeper into the game, it becomes more plausible to be concerned with systematic middle game errors since the character of the game may be emerging.

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