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Scoreless vs. 3a3a

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Wednesday, 5 May 2010, at 9:00 p.m.

In Response To: Scoreless vs. 3a3a (Carlo Melzi)

Black's basic takepoint ATS is 30% plus half of your net gammons while your 4-cube takepoint will be 25% cublesss. I'll give White 35% gammons here and Black 12% which raises the takepoint to 41.5%. Recube vig should be worth about 70% of the product of 41.5%*25%, which is ~ 7.5%. So Black needs around 34% cubless chances to take. Does he win this often? It looks real close, so definitely double and let the opponent decide. The next exchange is crucial. If Black fails to hit or anchor next time, he'll wish he'd passed. OTOH, if he hits or anchors he'll be in good shape. His 3-point board is of a higher quality than White's, White doesn't have an advanced anchor, and Black has control of the outfield.

D/close T looks right to me. With 62, I'd hit loose on the ace.

For money, the takepoint is 25% plus half the net g's plus all the net bg's and the oppt's cubeless 4-cube takepoint is around 20%. Plus you can't win a g without doubling so D/T looks right here as well.

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