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Rollouts of checker play

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Friday, 7 May 2010, at 10:40 p.m.

In Response To: Scoreless vs. 3a3a (Carlo Melzi)

The bottom line is that 8/6 7/1* and 9/1* are TCTC after 1296 games, either at 3a3a or scoreless. They both come out clearly ahead of the competition, both at 3a3a and scoreless.

At first I didn't even roll out 8/6 7/1* because it didn't make it through the move filter, but then after Carlo said it was XGR+'s choice, I did a separate rollout with just 8/6 7/1* versus 9/1*. So the data below are somewhat messy: Four separate rollouts, with the two critical ones not yet statsig. Sorry, but I'm not sure I want to devote more CPU time to this at the moment.

---

3a3a:

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	9/1*	+0.107
			0.557 0.302 0.010 - 0.443 0.172 0.026 +0.322 +0.107 0.002 0.003 0.001 - 0.002 0.004 0.002 0.005 0.006
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 851631734 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	24/16	+0.056 ( -0.051)
			0.564 0.226 0.030 - 0.436 0.200 0.019 +0.240 +0.056 0.002 0.003 0.002 - 0.002 0.005 0.002 0.005 0.006
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 851631734 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	24/18 9/7	+0.056 ( -0.051)
			0.564 0.228 0.029 - 0.436 0.180 0.009 +0.259 +0.056 0.002 0.003 0.003 - 0.002 0.005 0.001 0.005 0.006
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 851631734 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	8/6 7/1*	+0.117
			0.556 0.323 0.010 - 0.444 0.190 0.046 +0.325 +0.117 0.002 0.003 0.001 - 0.002 0.004 0.003 0.005 0.007
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 851539697 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	9/1*	+0.111 ( -0.007)
			0.559 0.301 0.010 - 0.441 0.166 0.025 +0.322 +0.111 0.002 0.003 0.001 - 0.002 0.004 0.002 0.005 0.007
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 851539697 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

---

Scoreless:

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	9/1*	+0.083
			0.559 0.288 0.006 - 0.441 0.139 0.009 +0.264 +0.083 0.002 0.002 0.000 - 0.002 0.002 0.000 0.004 0.008
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 851702324 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	24/18 9/7	+0.036 ( -0.047)
			0.569 0.223 0.015 - 0.431 0.150 0.005 +0.222 +0.036 0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.000 0.004 0.007
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 851702324 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	24/16	+0.031 ( -0.052)
			0.570 0.217 0.012 - 0.430 0.161 0.009 +0.200 +0.031 0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.000 0.004 0.007
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 851702324 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	9/1*	+0.071
			0.558 0.286 0.006 - 0.442 0.143 0.009 +0.256 +0.071 0.002 0.002 0.000 - 0.002 0.002 0.000 0.004 0.008
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 851751817 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	8/6 7/1*	+0.064 ( -0.008)
			0.554 0.311 0.004 - 0.446 0.163 0.018 +0.241 +0.064 0.002 0.002 0.000 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.005 0.008
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 851751817 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Scoreless vs. 3a3a
  Carlo Melzi -- Wednesday, 5 May 2010, at 9:43 a.m.
  • Scoreless vs. 3a3a
    Sam Pottle -- Wednesday, 5 May 2010, at 9:55 a.m.
    • Scoreless vs. 3a3a
      Carlo Melzi -- Wednesday, 5 May 2010, at 9:56 a.m.
  • Scoreless vs. 3a3a
    christian munk-christensen -- Wednesday, 5 May 2010, at 10:12 a.m.
  • Scoreless vs. 3a3a
    Fabrice Liardet -- Wednesday, 5 May 2010, at 12:10 p.m.
    • Scoreless vs. 3a3a
      garyo -- Thursday, 6 May 2010, at 4:52 a.m.
      • Scoreless vs. 3a3a
        Fabrice Liardet -- Thursday, 6 May 2010, at 11:32 a.m.
  • Scoreless vs. 3a3a
    John O'Hagan -- Wednesday, 5 May 2010, at 9:00 p.m.
  • Scoreless vs. 3a3a
    Daniel Murphy -- Wednesday, 5 May 2010, at 10:34 p.m.
  • Scoreless vs. 3a3a
    Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 5 May 2010, at 11:45 p.m.
  • Scoreless vs. 3a3a
    Stick -- Thursday, 6 May 2010, at 4:11 a.m.
    • Scoreless vs. 3a3a
      Carlo Melzi -- Thursday, 6 May 2010, at 10:39 a.m.
      • Scoreless vs. 3a3a
        Fabrice Liardet -- Thursday, 6 May 2010, at 12:22 p.m.
  • Rollouts of cube action
    Timothy Chow -- Friday, 7 May 2010, at 2:45 a.m.
    • Rollouts of cube action
      Stick -- Friday, 7 May 2010, at 2:57 a.m.
  • Rollouts of checker play
    Timothy Chow -- Friday, 7 May 2010, at 10:40 p.m.
    • Rollouts of checker play
      Stick -- Friday, 7 May 2010, at 11:14 p.m.