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Rollout: Run or prime?

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Tuesday, 18 May 2010, at 1:13 a.m.

In Response To: Run or prime? (Timothy Chow)

I ran with 24/15 but the rollout favors 24/18 11/8. I still can't quite get my head around this one. My reasoning was that 24/15 leaves fewer shots and duplicates 3's. I thought that if I were missed then I would have a strong double and perhaps a cash if White rolled something particularly bad. On the other hand, with 24/18 11/8, White can at least split to his 21-point with many of his missing rolls (this is another way of saying that 24/16 duplicates 3's), and it's not clear to me that I'm better off after "24/18 11/8, split" than after "24/15, miss." If White can't hit or split after 24/18 11/8 then maybe I have a cash, but I would have thought that I had almost as many cashes after 24/15. I guess it all balances out in favor of 24/18 11/8 in the end but I still find this result surprising.

gnubg	127
tchow	125
Position ID: bPeAATCcbTEDIA Match ID: cAkPAAAAEAAA

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	24/18 11/8	+0.472
			0.641 0.128 0.007 - 0.359 0.120 0.003 +0.294 +0.472 0.001 0.002 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.004 0.008
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 852342954 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	24/15	+0.392 ( -0.081)
			0.620 0.113 0.006 - 0.380 0.161 0.006 +0.192 +0.392 0.001 0.002 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.003 0.009
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 852342954 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Run or prime?
  Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 16 May 2010, at 9:28 p.m.
  • Run or prime?
    Max Urban -- Monday, 17 May 2010, at 8:06 a.m.
  • Run or prime?
    Ian Shaw -- Monday, 17 May 2010, at 9:45 a.m.
    • Run or prime?
      Christian Munk-Christensen -- Monday, 17 May 2010, at 10:46 a.m.
  • Run or prime?
    johnk -- Monday, 17 May 2010, at 3:23 p.m.
  • Run or prime?
    Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 17 May 2010, at 5:31 p.m.
  • Run or prime?
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 17 May 2010, at 7:56 p.m.
  • Rollout: Run or prime?
    Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 18 May 2010, at 1:13 a.m.
    • Rollout: Run or prime?
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Tuesday, 18 May 2010, at 1:22 a.m.
    • Rollout: Run or prime?
      Christian Munk-Christensen -- Tuesday, 18 May 2010, at 7:46 a.m.
    • Rollout: Run or prime?
      Daniel Murphy -- Tuesday, 18 May 2010, at 2:16 p.m.
    • Rollout: Run or prime?
      Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 18 May 2010, at 5:14 p.m.
  • Variant positions: Run or prime?
    Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 20 May 2010, at 1:34 a.m.
    • Efficiency of points
      Chuck Bower -- Thursday, 20 May 2010, at 4:40 p.m.
      • Efficiency of points
        Matt Cohn-Geier -- Thursday, 20 May 2010, at 5:30 p.m.
    • Variant positions: Run or prime?
      Daniel Murphy -- Thursday, 20 May 2010, at 5:39 p.m.