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BGonline.org Forums
Rollout: Run or prime?
Posted By: Timothy Chow In Response To: Run or prime? (Timothy Chow)
Date: Tuesday, 18 May 2010, at 1:13 a.m.
I ran with 24/15 but the rollout favors 24/18 11/8. I still can't quite get my head around this one. My reasoning was that 24/15 leaves fewer shots and duplicates 3's. I thought that if I were missed then I would have a strong double and perhaps a cash if White rolled something particularly bad. On the other hand, with 24/18 11/8, White can at least split to his 21-point with many of his missing rolls (this is another way of saying that 24/16 duplicates 3's), and it's not clear to me that I'm better off after "24/18 11/8, split" than after "24/15, miss." If White can't hit or split after 24/18 11/8 then maybe I have a cash, but I would have thought that I had almost as many cashes after 24/15. I guess it all balances out in favor of 24/18 11/8 in the end but I still find this result surprising.
gnubg 127
tchow 125 Position ID: bPeAATCcbTEDIA Match ID: cAkPAAAAEAAA
# Ply Move Equity • 1 R 24/18 11/8 +0.472
0.641 0.128 0.007 - 0.359 0.120 0.003 +0.294 +0.472 0.001 0.002 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.004 0.008 Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 852342954 and quasi-random dice Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] 2 R 24/15 +0.392 ( -0.081)
0.620 0.113 0.006 - 0.380 0.161 0.006 +0.192 +0.392 0.001 0.002 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.003 0.009 Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 852342954 and quasi-random dice Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
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