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Rollout: Run or prime?

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Tuesday, 18 May 2010, at 1:13 a.m.

In Response To: Run or prime? (Timothy Chow)

I ran with 24/15 but the rollout favors 24/18 11/8. I still can't quite get my head around this one. My reasoning was that 24/15 leaves fewer shots and duplicates 3's. I thought that if I were missed then I would have a strong double and perhaps a cash if White rolled something particularly bad. On the other hand, with 24/18 11/8, White can at least split to his 21-point with many of his missing rolls (this is another way of saying that 24/16 duplicates 3's), and it's not clear to me that I'm better off after "24/18 11/8, split" than after "24/15, miss." If White can't hit or split after 24/18 11/8 then maybe I have a cash, but I would have thought that I had almost as many cashes after 24/15. I guess it all balances out in favor of 24/18 11/8 in the end but I still find this result surprising.

gnubg127


1O '2X2X3X4X ' ' ' ' '2O

2X '3O '2O2O2O1O ' '2O2X

tchow125

Position ID: bPeAATCcbTEDIA Match ID: cAkPAAAAEAAA

# Ply Move Equity
1 R 24/18 11/8 +0.472
0.6410.1280.007-0.3590.1200.003 +0.294 +0.472
0.0010.0020.000-0.0010.0010.000 0.004 0.008
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 852342954 and quasi-random dice
Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
2 R 24/15 +0.392 ( -0.081)
0.6200.1130.006-0.3800.1610.006 +0.192 +0.392
0.0010.0020.000-0.0010.0010.000 0.003 0.009
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 852342954 and quasi-random dice
Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

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