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Rollout: Run or prime?

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Tuesday, 18 May 2010, at 2:16 p.m.

In Response To: Rollout: Run or prime? (Timothy Chow)

The most important difference between 24/18 11/8 and 24/15 is that the first play makes the 8 point, and the second play gets hit 2/36 less often. It's nice, but less important, that after 24/15 your back checker is closer to home and better coordinated, but it shouldn't be all that much harder to bring your straggler home from the 18 point.

So, if you play 24/15, which gets hits 2/36 less often, Opp's best (and very good!) numbers (besides 3-3) are 6-1 and 4-3. They escape one checker, eliminate your prime slot, and there you are, on the roof against a 4 point board, with another blot on your 15 point, your board and prime worse than your opponent's, whose one checker back is better than yours, not being on the bar.

So, it seems likely that 24/18 11/8, which stops these 4/36 strong replies (6-1 and 4-3) should easily compensate for getting hit 2/36 more times.

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