OTB I had little to think about here. My thoughts went like this... I have about 20% ME if I pass vs an equal player...looking at the position, I am certain that I have to win considerably more than 25%...therefore I have a trivial take here, inspite of being somewhat stronger than my opp, noting that I really don't care what my ME is vs him if I pass and that there's some skill left in this game.
My opinion remains that Sasan would win this match more often if he'd waited for an improvement since there aren't that many immediate sequences that put him close to 80%.
Anyhow, I recubed as soon as I smelled a market loser, noting that 10C-0 is rather hopeless and that I am not afraid to lose a big match in 10 minutes when there's a few people watching.
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| XGID=-CbDCC--a---b----Abcb-cA--:2:-1:-1:00:0:2:0:11:10 | ||||||||||||||||
 on roll, cube action? | ||||||||||||||||
is Player 1 | Analyzed in Rollout | |
| No Double | |
| Player Winning Chances: | 64.16% (G: 14.60% B: 0.72%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 35.84% (G: 14.11% B: 0.73%) |
| Double/Take | |
| Player Winning Chances: | 65.24% (G: 13.74% B: 0.75%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 34.76% (G: 17.45% B: 2.58%) |
| Cubeless Equities | |
| No Redouble: | +0.236 |
| Redouble: | +0.319 |
| Cubeful Equities | |
| No Redouble: | +0.406 |
| Redouble/Take: | +0.218 (-0.188) |
| Redouble/Drop: | +1.000 (+0.594) |
| Best Cube action: No Redouble / Take | |
| Rollout details | |
| 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 87427665 Moves and cube decisions: 4 ply | |
| Confidence No Redouble: | ± 0.005 (+0.401...+0.412) |
| Confidence Redouble: | ± 0.008 (+0.210...+0.226) |
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Duration: 1 hour 12 minutes | |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.14, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross