[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

JLee vs. NeilKaz in SF -- #3

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Thursday, 27 May 2010, at 8:33 p.m.

In Response To: JLee vs. NeilKaz in SF -- #3 (Jason Lee)

Ala Kleinman-Ward (via Trice's Boot Camp):

White gets no adjustment to his 47 pips.

For Blue, subtract two for each extra checker off but add 1 for each extra uncovered point. That's 41 - 2*2 + 2*1 = 39.

(difference + 4) / sqrt(sum - 4) = 12/sqrt(82) = 12/9 = 1.33. Interpolating between 76% (KC=1) and 80% (KC=1.4) says Blue has a bit more than 79% cGWC (cubeless game winning chance).

Are there any last minute adjustments? Blue's sparse 5-point might hurt his distribution a smidgen, so let's call it 79% cGWC to 21% cGWC.

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.