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Posted By: Chase
Date: Thursday, 27 May 2010, at 8:59 p.m.

In Response To: 33 to play (Chase)

This is Position 10 from the Game 4 of Match 2 in Marty Storer's Backgammon Praxis (vol. 2). Malcolm Davis played 13/10(3) 8/5 over the board. Marty says he liked Davis' play at the time, but later concluded that 8/2 4/1(2) is best. His 3-ply Snowie rollout agrees.

My choice of 13/10 8/2 5/2 isn't mentioned in Marty's analysis. Nor is 13/10 8/2 6/3, and neither play appears in the provided rollout. I was curious about how far behind these plays are, so I plugged the position into XG, which concludes that both Marty and Snowie overlooked the top two plays.





is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 120
7 point match
pip: 133
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=---BBBCbA---bC---c-c-cBb--:0:0:1:33:0:0:0:7:10
to play 33

1.Rollout113/10 8/2 5/2eq: -0.150
Player:
Opponent:
45.72% (G:12.39% B:0.40%)
54.28% (G:9.66% B:0.46%)
Conf: ± 0.006 (-0.156...-0.144)
Duration: 1 hour 15 minutes
2.Rollout113/10 8/2 6/3eq: -0.167 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:
45.41% (G:12.23% B:0.45%)
54.59% (G:10.00% B:0.48%)
Conf: ± 0.006 (-0.173...-0.161)
Duration: 57 minutes 42 seconds
3.Rollout18/2 4/1(2)eq: -0.187 (-0.038)
Player:
Opponent:
44.80% (G:11.01% B:0.32%)
55.20% (G:10.33% B:0.44%)
Conf: ± 0.005 (-0.192...-0.182)
Duration: 1 hour 04 minutes
4.Rollout18/2 6/3 5/2eq: -0.192 (-0.042)
Player:
Opponent:
44.79% (G:10.41% B:0.35%)
55.21% (G:10.26% B:0.44%)
Conf: ± 0.005 (-0.197...-0.187)
Duration: 1 hour 02 minutes
5.Rollout113/10(3) 8/5eq: -0.286 (-0.136)
Player:
Opponent:
42.23% (G:6.79% B:0.24%)
57.77% (G:5.61% B:0.19%)
Conf: ± 0.005 (-0.291...-0.281)
Duration: 1 hour 16 minutes
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.14, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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