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BGonline.org Forums
51 to play
Posted By: John O'Hagan In Response To: 51 to play (mochy)
Date: Wednesday, 2 June 2010, at 3:20 a.m.
Slotting the 5s looks clearly wrong so it's either 8/3 or 6/1x. 8/3 isn't really all that safe since 10s hit outside and most 5s plus D4,D3, and D1 allow oppt to enter and hit back on his acepoint. 6/1x looks best. It definitely gives you more gammon wins than 8/3 since you'll be well positioned to carry out a blitz if the oppt dances with one or both checkers without hitting. How about gammon losses? Maybe a little more than with 8/3 but maybe not. Overall wins look greater with the dbl hit as well. 6/1x looks like the right gameplan for you: You've got enough men in the zone for a successful blitz and the oppt has 2 more blots in his outfield. Plus you own the cube and I think this blitzing approach gives you the best chance to offer a scary redouble in the near future. I also think it's the play the oppt doesn't want you to make.
As far as general principles are concerned, remember that turning a loss into a win is twice as important as turning a single loss into a gammon loss. So if you can squeeze out half as many extra wins as extra g losses, it's correct to go for it (even less than half if you own the cube). If you own the cube, look for plays that increase your chances of offering an efficient redouble.
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