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3a4a cube - dbl? take? pass?
Posted By: John O'Hagan In Response To: 3a4a cube - dbl? take? pass? (Tad Bright)
Date: Wednesday, 2 June 2010, at 2:38 p.m.
Blonde's basic 2-cube takepoint ATS is 35%, the 2-cube gammon values heavily favor the trailer by around 100%/43%, and the leader's 4-cube takepoint is ~ 41%. I'll guess 30%/8% for Brunette/Blonde's g chances which raises the takepoint to around 40%. Recube vig, assuming 70% efficiency, should lower this to 30% ( 40% - .7*.40*.41). Another way to think about blonde's take/pass decision is to ask what the trailer needs to take ATS assuming he automatically redoubles on his next shake. In that case he needs whatever you think his MWC are at 2a-4a (I use 33%). Since automatically recubing is clearly wrong, you can usually take with 2-3% less than this figure. Either way, it looks like the trailer needs ~30% cubeless chances to take. Can he win that often?
Brunette's rolls can be broken down to pointers (15), hit and run from the 20 (4), and everything else (17). The pointers hurt but you've got the 18 and a 3-point board of your own, so maybe you win around 3.5 of these. The hit-and-runs cost you 20 pips in the race leaving you a clear dog even if you do anchor somewhere in brunette's board. I'll guess 1.25 wins in these 4 games. That's 4.75 wins so far so we need 6 wins in the remaining 19 games to get to takeland. Can we do it? Looks close but I think so. 17 of these 19 rolls give the oppt a choice of attacking loose on his 5-point or playing safe (all but D6 & D2), so we might gain if the oppt chooses the wrong approach. Even if he plays these numbers correctly (whatever that is), I think we can take.
D/T looks right to me.
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