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Tough decision?

Posted By: Casper van der Tak
Date: Friday, 4 June 2010, at 7:22 a.m.

In Response To: Tough decision? (Paul Vianna)

It looks like a very strong recube before the roll. That may affect your decision - you may want to minimize opponent's jokers after the 41 play in case you intend to cube.

I see 4 plays: make the 2, make the 5, 20/16 10/9 and 20/15. The last minimize shots, but being behind in the race and with black favored to enter, these plays look too weak.

So make a point, and let's assume that Black dances. In that case, I'd prefer to have made the 2-point here, because it uses the dilly spare on the 3, and more importantly, all builders will bear on open points. After making the 2, the only rolls that do not hit or make an additional point are 11, 21 and 32. After making the 5: 11, 21, 31, 32, 43, 53, 55.

The same also applies in the case of a non-hitting entry - making the 2 point is better for the follow up. In that case, an added advantage is that you'd have less blots to worry about.

How many hits after each play? After making the 2: 41, 42, 46, 51, 52, 55, 65 (13 shots). After making the 5: 21, 22, 26, 41, 42, 46, 45. Also 13 shots.

Conclusion: I make the 2-point. After a dance, I play on (Too Good).

BTW, I think the decision to make the 2 point is clearer with your opponent holding the cube.

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