[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

How to count MWC here,and how much i need to re-double?

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Tuesday, 8 June 2010, at 12:40 p.m.

In Response To: How to count MWC here,and how much i need to re-double? (Gregory Perel)

Reference materials:

Tom Keith's Backgammon Galore website -- http://www.bkgm.com/

Trice's Backgammon Bootcamp (book)

Kleinman's Vision Laughs at Counting, with Advice to the Dicelorn (book)

I'm going to create a hybrid method here which may not be super accurate but I think it will answer this one.

Vanilla has a "roll" position (see Trice) of four rolls to bear off (without getting doublets), giving a Trice Count (formerly called "Effective Pip Count" or 'EPC') of 7*4 + 1 = 29.

Chocolate has 34 pips plus some wastage. (See Trice to estimate wastage.) I'm going with 8 pips of wastage for a total Trice Count of 34 + 8 = 42.

(From Kleinman) Now take the square of four more than the difference in pipcounts and divide by the four less than the sum of the pipcounts: (diff + 4)^2 / (sum - 4) which here gives a result of about 4.2. This corresponds to Vanilla winning a bit over 92% of games (and matches if Chocolate were to take a double).

If Chocolate passes he wins more than 8% of matches (9% between equal opponents according to the G11 Match Equity table; I don't have the new Rockwell-Kazaross table memorized but I think it's pretty close to that).

Pass.

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.