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31P-33C-32?

Posted By: Stick
Date: Tuesday, 15 June 2010, at 11:50 a.m.

In Response To: No clue (Tad Bright)

I changed the Subject line in case Nack was snoozing and wanted to sneak in on the post. Your opponent incorrectly played their 33 response costing them over ~.04 according to the money rollouts. At the score I believe it's a bigger error and aside from being down 5-0, you should be happy to be playing such a fish ;)

To the problem at hand. There are only so many avenues one has to be able to win a game. Once your opponent has anchored up some of those routes are cut off and you have to concentrate on other approaches. Your biggest weakness now is your back checkers. You want to get them moving before your opponent brings more checkers into his outfield and while you still have equal strength boards. While a snoozer of a play like 13/8 improves your distribution it doesn't do much for your overall game plan as your forward progress on that side of the board is very limited.

You also aren't going to gratuitously leave a direct shot for your opponent to escape off the anchor, so 13/10 with the 3 is out. To me in fact, the 3 is nearly forced. I would give 6/3 a courtesy glance but it semi strips the 6pt and while slots the next point in line that I can make at the moment, doesn't leave much to cover it and blots my inner board when I'm trying to split and my opponent might be on the attacking front. So there you have it, my tre is 24/21.

There are only two deuces, 24/22 or 13/11. 13/11 unstacks the midpoint which is of minor value I believe since again, you should be concentrating on moving the back checkers. The biggest advantage 13/11 has over 24/22 in my eyes is that it doesn't make so many of my opponent's numbers good. Moving up with the back two checkers may be ok, I'm not sure, but it seems to give the opponent too many options of either hitting two or pointing on one and forcing me to roll a decent reply. I'm going to go with 24/21 13/11.

Sorry I don't have a rollout of this even for money because I don't roll out 3rd roll sequences when the second move was wrong by so much.

Stick

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