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Not a huge amount of equity at stake here; nevertheless...

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Wednesday, 16 June 2010, at 3:36 p.m.

In Response To: Not a huge amount of equity at stake here; nevertheless... (Steve Mellen)

I overlooked 6-5, which just about negates the sum of 6-1 6-2 5-1 4-2 2-2 3-3 6-6. Thanks for catching that.

Looking at White's moves after doubling with the Gnubg Temperature map, the biggest difference appears to occur when White rolls 5-1, the biggest swings in favor of 6/5 6/3 being 5-2 18/13* 5/3 lifting vs. 18/18* 18/16 (+0.421), 6-6 18/6(2) after either play (+0.195), 6-1 18/17*/11 vs. 18/12* 18/17(+0.174) and in 6/5 6/3's disfavor 6/2 5-5 18/13* 18/8 13/8 vs 18/13* 18/8 6/1(-0.118). Overall advantage +.080 for 6/3 6/5, according to Gnubg's Temperature Map.

But perhaps the biggest difference overall between 6/5 6/3 and 6/2 is that a in a position with only 30% GWC, a lot of Blue's equity comes from rolling a big doublet. When Blue rolls 6-6 and can clear, having 2 checkers on the 6 point and 1 on the 5 point is much better than having 3 checkers on the 6 point and an empty 5 point. For a faster bearoff with slightly fewer misses, the spare is also better placed on the 5 point when Blue rolls 5-5 or 4-4.

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