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2 unit cap money game puzzler (2nd correction)

Posted By: Rich Munitz
Date: Wednesday, 16 June 2010, at 9:44 p.m.

In Response To: 2 unit cap money game puzzler (correction) (Rich Munitz)

For my previous posts I had not realized the ~29% takepoint here. So here is a slight modification that I believe should handle this fact.

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 41
6
Money session
Jacoby
pip: 62
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=aCBBBBC------A--------cbc-:0:0:1:00:0:0:1:0:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in XG Roller+
Player Winning Chances: 65.35% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.65% (G: 0.02% B: 0.00%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.307
Double:+0.617
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.514
Double/Take:+0.426 (-0.088)
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.486)
Best Cube action: No Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.14

Yellow wins the position about 65% of the time. Clear take for black.

There are also no market losing rolls. All rolls for yellow leave black with over 30% GWC (and obviously no gammons). Therefore there are no cases where failing to double loses equity.

However, yellow does lose equity by doubling now when he rolls 66 and black responds with 66.

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 41
6
Money session
Jacoby


2
 pip: 38
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=aDBBBBA---------------cbc-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:1:0:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in XG Roller+
Player Winning Chances: 48.10% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 51.90% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:-0.038
Double:-0.085
Cubeful Equities
No Double:-0.106
Double/Take:-0.426 (-0.320)
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+1.106)
Best Cube action: No Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.14

We see here that after the first 66, black remains an underdog and therefore should not double from the bar. Thus black only wins 2 points from rolling a 66 from the bar if yellow has doubled first.

Doubling by yellow now cannot gain equity, but can lose equity.

Therefore doubling by yellow is an error.

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