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BGonline.org Forums
Rehashing "Luck"
Posted By: Ralph Byrns In Response To: Rehashing "Luck" (Stick)
Date: Sunday, 20 June 2010, at 1:52 a.m.
None of my posts were intended to abuse this blog. And you are correct that my snarky response was aimed primarily at the comments of Mr. Lee, not the writings of Mr. Murphy. RE: My original post. ... I intended it as a comment on a December thread in which Steve Mellen had asserted that chess involves even more luck than backgammon. I assume Steve, who can be pretty laconic and was part of our Chicago chouette in the late 1990s, was being intentionally provocative. In an attempt to extend into a different area the thrust of what Steve said, I indicated that efficient markets theory and backgammon theory have some common elements, including outcomes that depend on probabilities. The expected gains and losses of both backgammon played by equally skilled opponents and investorswho speculate in "efficient" asset markets theoretically sum to zero. Ex ante, no player is expected to have more luck than another, but ex post, risky outcomes partially reflect luck. Similarly, assets are hypothesized to generate expected returns that precisely reflect risk and liquidity premiums, and expected pure economic profit is zero -- but that's never the precise actual outcome of any investment.
I may not have stated the parallels I see very lucidly or well, but I was shocked when some people's reactions seemed to boil down to [paraphrased]: "Who the heck is this guy? Let's check out his credentials on the web. Wow! How dare he assert that he is a world champion if we have not endorsed the title of the tournament he supposedly won? His statements are misleading and blatantly false."
Fact: My website never claimed more for the Strategiespiele tournament than it was, nor did I claim to be any better at BG than I am. I merely claimed that I was lucky. Just as I am a duffer golfer who has made thee eagles in the past two decades, I am an intermediate/advanced BG player who was blessed by a lucky streak in 2002, but I have never claimed to be an open/championship caliber player. I am not willing to take backgammon that seriously. [See the profile I posted on this blog when I first signed up for it.] The steam in the comments I sent after the first one reflected my reaction to folks, especially Mr. Lee, who presumed to lecture me on ethics. Moreover, I do regard as a bit prissy the notion that the title "World Champion," is semi-sacrosanct and reserved for the winner of some tournament in Monaco that I am willing to bet most [50+%] on-line BG players have never heard of, and that, by extension, no host or group can title their tounament a "world championship" even if qualified by "Internet" or "On-Line" used as adjectives.
Incidentally, I've emailed Mr. Murphy an apology because I did mistakenly attach my vitriolic comment to his posting. And I apologize to you for my contributions to the weird twists and turns in this thread.
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