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Statistics, anyone?

Posted By: W Womack
Date: Monday, 21 June 2010, at 6:52 p.m.

In Response To: Statistics, anyone? (Chuck Bower)

One way to treat this problem would be as a binomial, which gives the probability of x success in n trials given a known probablity of success.

Applying this to the data for the 5 point board for the human player we have:

Trials = 63

Success = 13

P(success) = .3056 (11/36)assuming 1 checker up.

The probability of exactly 13 success in 63 trials is 0.0256

The probability of 13 or fewer success in 63 trials is 0.0542

These numbers, while certainly on the lower end of the possible outcomes, do not seem out of line. Certainly if you play much you are going to encounter situations that happen 5% of the time with some regularity.

For the computer the numbers are:

Trails = 22

Success = 14

Probability of entering in exactly 14 trials, 0.0011

Probability of entering in 14 or few trials, 0.0014

The computer numbers seem more suspect, entering this easily is not very likely.

If we were sure of the data then I would argue that these numbers would justify further investigation.

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