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BGonline.org Forums
One checker
Posted By: Chuck Bower In Response To: One checker (Casper van der Tak)
Date: Friday, 25 June 2010, at 1:39 p.m.
Agree with the breakdown IF the 15-remaining player has good distribution of his two spares. If either of these is low in the homeboard the chances drop. At home I have a compilation (done using SW) of the chances to win with opp on the bar as a function of spare location. I should look that up but my recollection is that it can be about half of the best (best being 8+%), and I suppose if you put both spares on the acepoint it's even worse than 4%. (I didn't roll out EVERY possible combination, but I may have done as many as 100.)
I can remember two of these that I've won, and I'm sure I've won many more than that. One is from the late 70's playing a money game (yeh, I used to do that). I remember because of opponent's whining. At a tournament this year (Pitt or Chicago -- only two I've played so far) I won one as well, with the cube (no whining). I can't remember any specific times I've lost these but I'm sure that's happened a lot, also.
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