| |
BGonline.org Forums
Crunch time?
Posted By: Daniel Murphy In Response To: Crunch time? (Timothy Chow)
Date: Thursday, 29 July 2010, at 8:24 p.m.
6/4 6/1.
If Blue plays two checkers from the midpoint, White has 14/36 hitting numbers and a great prime. Too much!
If Blue plays two checkers from the 8 point, Blue loses a landing point for not-so-bad 5s like 5-4 and 5-3, and Blue's racing lead suggests that Blue is more likely to leave a shot clearing the 13 point than White is running from the bar point.
So 6/1 is my 5. For the deuce, 3/1 looks very wasteful -- a fourth checker on the ace point with two gaps. Which leaves 5/3 and 6/4. The latter seems better for having 4 home board points covered two and three turns from now (Blue needn't worry what his board looks like next turn) without creating, as 5/3 does, a wasteful bearoff board with its 3 point stack, 2 gaps, and extra checker on the 6 point.
One consideration in pay now, pay later is whether the chances of the position deteriorating justify giving immediate shots now. 14/36 immediate shots need a lot of justification, and White's prime is as strong as it is likely to be. If Blue plays 6/4 6/1, Blue's position looks temporarily fractured, but seems likely to allow Blue to play many rolls comfortably for a turn or three and have a decent board when and if he needs it while preserving Blue's outfield movement options. Meanwhile, White's great prime can't last forever, probably no more than two turns. If Blue ends up having to give a shot, better later than now, this time.
| |
BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.