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BGonline.org Forums
Play like a top Giant ???
Posted By: John O'Hagan In Response To: Play like a top Giant ??? (neilkaz)
Date: Monday, 2 August 2010, at 4:54 a.m.
Peever's basic 2-cube takepoint ATS is approx 28%, the 2-cube g values favor the trailer by around 56% to 34%, and the leader's 4-cube takepoint is in the 28% neighborhood. The gammon threats are pretty one-sided in favor of Mochy who has 6 hitting jokers on the 14 and 2 more that PoH on the ace. Other good numbers include D4,D3,D2, and D1 which give him the option of putting Peever on the roof by swithing points. Peever wins some g's too since Mochy's a little short on men in the zone. If Mochy hits loose, Black could hit back to send a 3rd checker back and maybe develop a gammon threat of his own. I'll guess gammons favor Mochy's side by 33% to 7% which raises the trailer's takepoint to around 35%. Assuming 70% efficiency, the cube should be worth about 7% here (35% less 70% of the product of 35% x 28%), so Black needs about 28% cubeless chances to take this cube.
Does he have it? The 8 jokers are real bad, mabye Black wins 1 of those. The 4 small doubles plus the 6 numbers that make an advanced anchor are pretty good for Mochy as well. I'll guess Black wins 2.5 of these. Can Black win a little over 6.5 of the remaining 18 games? I think so. A lot of these numbers are difficult to play so there's a chance that even a world class player like Mochy might not find the best play with some of these numbers. Mochy is currently ahead by 10 pips in the race but there's lots of contact left in this game and Peever might be able to contain Mochy's back men. Could be wrong but I'd take it.
Is it a double? I think so. The 8 jokers are mostly huge mkt losers likewise switch/fan and 65 or 43 are probably small mkt losers. Looks like enough volatility to me. D/T.
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